How to turn our quagmire in Iraq into our enemies'

After 9/11, Iraq seemed like a perfect solution to all our woes, signed, sealed, and delivered. The terrorist threat we faced on 9/11 came from medievalist theocrats with an ideology and culture as alien as it was menacing. But all those problems could be swept away, the neoconservatives assured us, with the power of liberal democracy and American sunshine. We could transfer our own ideals into the heart of the Middle East and trigger a chain reaction that would free the region and its people, and cause them to repudiate radical Islamism and slay the Al Qaeda dragon that represents it.

Al Qaeda had, essentially, exactly the opposite vision. An invasion of Iraq would reveal once and for all the imperialist intentions of America and the west. The people of the Middle East would rise up in unison, to overthrow their western-backed rulers, and restore the caliphate. This would cause Islam to return to its former glory, and once more surpass the west, as it had done from its founding in the late Dark Ages to about the time of the Reformation and Renaissance.

Neither has come to pass, and it now seems clear that neither will. On America’s side of the war, a failure to ensure security, rebuild infrastructure, and bring about effective governance has caused both Americans and Iraqis to become disenchanted. On Al Qaeda’s overthrowing Saddam triggered the ascendance of Shi’ite Iran and violence between Iraq’s Sunni and Shi’ite factions. Violence is now more often between Muslims than against Americans, and across the Middle East, a intra-civilization-al rift has been opened. Sunni core-state Saudi Arabia would prefer to cooperate with even hated Israel before Iran, as exemplified by their condemnations of Iranian ally Hezbollah during the recent Israel-Lebanon War.

So it now seems we are at a point of extreme despair. The attempt to win the War on Terror by exporting western values and western institutions has not been a success, and Iraq seems destined for civil war. But not all is lost. Indeed, an enormous opportunity has been opened. It is often said that we cannot leave Iraq, because if we did, we would create a “safe haven” for Al Qaeda and other terrorists. Preposterous! Consider the ramifications of the US pulling out of Iraq, or retreating into friendly Kurdistan. Shi’ite-Sunni violence would increase, creating a constant drain on resources for the decidedly Sunni Al Qaeda. Such a situation achieves three strategic objectives for the US. A.) It deflects much of the terrorist threat away from us, as major terrorist groups begin to spend resources on fighting their rivals in Iraq. B.) It causes inter-Islamic strife, discouraging the Al Qaeda dream of a unified caliphate to destroy the west. C.) It would create, in southern Iraq, a humanitarian crisis for Iran, as shi’ites fled across the border to escape violence.

There are two possible costs to this plan. The first is that it would surely lead to Kurdish secession, and may provoke Turkey. The second is that it may spill over into Saudi Arabia, and threaten the royal family there. Both can be remedied. If American troops re-deploy into Kurdistan, the Turks would not dare challenge an independent, and US-friendly Kurdish state. The Saudi threat can be reasonably contained by creating an alliance of US-friendly states in the region, likely consisting of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Kurdistan, (unofficially) Israel, and others, designed to hedge against any possible threat from Iran and her allies. The solution then, is clear. Pull out of Iraq’s sunni and shi’ite regions, and work with our allies to form a clear alliance against Iran. Before you know it, the quagmire will not be in Wahington’s lap, but in Al Qaeda and Teheran’s.